Tuesday, September 9 at 7pm, in Hunstman Hall Room 240

Aggregating advice from altered forecasting methods, Polly provides a circadian adapted anticipation of the acclamation outcome. Therefore, Polly will crop the a lot of contempo contest that action throughout the 2008 acclamation to devise the a lot of accurate anticipation possible.

Based on accurate evidence
As apparent by J. Scott Armstrong, Professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, accumulation forecasts reduces anticipation error. Under ideal conditions, such accumulated forecasts can even be added accurate than their a lot of accurate components. Polly follows the assumption of accumulation and averages forecasts from four components: assessment polls, a anticipation market, able judgments and currently seven quantitative models. In fact, Polly will abide to amend the anticipation as the 2008 acclamation continues to unfold. There is absolutely the abeyant for changes in the accessible assessment of either candidate, and it is acute that Polly abide to crop these into anniversary if admiration the aftereffect of the election.

Thereby, Polly accounts for absurdity adumbrated in the basic forecasts. For example, analysis has apparent that assessment acclamation can not be interpreted as a anticipation of the acclamation outcome, abnormally aboriginal in the campaign. Thus, Polly discounts poll abstracts based on actual poll annal to accomplish added reliable forecasts.

Polly’s accepted forecast
For the endure two weeks, Polly’s anticipation has been absolutely stable, admiration about 48.0% for the Republican’s allotment of the accepted two-party vote. Thus, currently, Polly sees Barack Obama advanced by about 4.0%. Ever back her re-launch in August 2007 through to August 2008, Polly predicted that the Democratic applicant would win. As apparent in the PollyGraph, by August 2008, none of her apparatus adumbrate a Republicans win.

Pollyvote is allotment of the Political Forecasting Special Interest Group at http://www.forecastingprinciples.com, a ability for advisers and practitioners absorbed in forecasting elections and added political events. It is accurate by the International Institute of Forecasters.